Use it when you are

  • Sizing an opportunity before writing a business plan or pitch
  • Checking whether a new product line or region is worth deeper investigation
  • Preparing a first-pass market overview for a client or leadership team
  • Listing the assumptions to test before commissioning paid research

Why this prompt works

Four labels make the evidence quality visible

A market brief full of confident numbers is hard to audit. Tagging each figure as sourced, provided, estimated or unverified shows at a glance which parts rest on a document you can open and which rest on reasoning or recall, so you know where to spend your checking time.

The model must declare whether it can search

Whether a model has live web access changes what its figures are worth. Requiring a first-line statement, and banning the sourced label when search is unavailable, prevents recalled numbers from being dressed up as citations. It also tells you immediately whether to rerun the prompt in a tool that can search.

Two sizing methods and a range

Analysts cross-check a top-down estimate against a bottom-up one because each fails in a different way. Asking for both as ranges, with an input table and an explanation of any disagreement, exposes the assumptions doing the most work and avoids a single figure that implies precision the evidence cannot support.

Segments are defined by need and trigger

Demographic segments describe who people are, not why they buy. Asking for the problem, the current workaround, the payer and the purchase trigger gives you segments you can recruit for interviews and write messaging against, and it feeds directly into the bottom-up size estimate.

It ends at primary research

Desk research can narrow a question but cannot confirm that customers will pay. Closing with the five assumptions the decision rests on, each paired with an inexpensive test, turns the brief into a plan for the work that must happen outside the chat window.

How to use it

  1. Use a model or mode with web search switched on. This prompt depends on current, linkable sources.
  2. Write the decision as something you will do or not do. It shapes section 7 and the assumptions list.
  3. Paste anything you already know, including competitor names and prices, so the model does not spend the brief rediscovering them.
  4. Go straight to the market-size input table. Open every [SOURCED] link and check the figure, its date and its geography.
  5. Challenge the estimate: ask the model to recalculate with your corrected inputs, or to show which single input changes the range most.
  6. Take the assumptions list into interviews or a small test before relying on the size estimate.

AI model compatibility

ModelStatusNotes
PerplexityExpected to workSuited to this prompt because answers come with linked sources. Open each link behind a [SOURCED] figure and confirm that the page states that number, for that geography and year.
ChatGPTExpected to workTurn on web search before running the prompt. Without it, expect the first line to say so and the figures to be labeled [ESTIMATE] or [UNVERIFIED].
ClaudeExpected to workUse a version with web search enabled if you want sourced figures. Without search, the prompt is still useful for the market definition, segments and assumptions to test.
GeminiExpected to workKeep the evidence labels section intact and check that linked sources are the original publisher, not a page that repeats the figure second-hand.

“Expected to work” means the prompt uses plain, model-independent structure and has been reviewed for that — not that it has been run on that model. A model is marked Tested only when a test record is published below.

Worked example

Scenario: A founder weighing a filter-refill subscription for independent cafes before committing to a pilot.

Example: filled-in prompt
# Role
You are a market research analyst preparing a desk-research brief. You separate what is sourced from what is estimated, and you would sooner report a gap than fill it with a plausible number.

# Brief
- Product or service: Subscription refill service for commercial coffee machine water filters
- Target customer: Independent cafes with one to three sites
- Geography: United Kingdom
- Decision this research must inform: Whether to spend three months building and running a pilot in one city
- What I already know (data, competitors, prices): Spoke to six cafe owners; four replace filters late or not at all. Two equipment suppliers sell filters as one-off purchases. No sales data yet.

# Evidence labels
Tag every figure and every factual claim about a company with one of:
[SOURCED] - you retrieved it in this session; give publisher, date of the figure and a link.
[PROVIDED] - it comes from my notes above.
[ESTIMATE] - your own reasoning; show the inputs and arithmetic.
[UNVERIFIED] - recalled without a source you can show; treat as a lead to check.
If you cannot search the web in this session, say so in the first line and do not use [SOURCED] at all.

# Sections
1. Market definition - what is in and out of scope, the unit of demand (customers, transactions, seats and so on), and adjacent markets I should not confuse it with.
2. Customer segments - three to five segments by need or buying situation, not demographics alone. For each: the problem, current workaround, who pays, and what triggers a purchase.
3. Market size - a top-down and a bottom-up estimate, each as a range. List every input in a table with its label. If the two approaches disagree widely, explain why instead of averaging them.
4. Competition - direct competitors, substitutes, and the option of doing nothing. Name only companies you can source or that I provided; otherwise describe the type of competitor.
5. Pricing and channels - observed price points and pricing models, and how customers in this market find and buy.
6. Trends and constraints - demand drivers, regulation, and anything that could shrink the market, each tied to evidence.
7. Implications for the decision - what the evidence supports, what it does not, and how confident you are (high, medium, low) with a reason.
8. Assumptions to test - the five assumptions the decision depends on most, and a cheap primary-research method for each (interviews, survey, landing-page test, pre-orders).

# Constraints
- No figure without a label, a date and a unit. No growth rates or market sizes from unnamed "industry reports".
- Prefer primary sources: statistical agencies, regulators, company filings, trade bodies.
- Do not present a single-number market size.
- Keep it under 900 words excluding tables.

# Output format
Eight numbered headings. Tables for market-size inputs and competitors. End with a source list containing only the links you used.

What a good response should contain

  • A market definition that separates independents from chains and from offices with coffee machines
  • Segments based on buying situation, such as owner-operators who maintain their own machine versus those on a service contract
  • A bottom-up size range built from a number of cafes and a replacement frequency, with each input labeled and the cafe count either sourced with a link or marked as needing one
  • A competition section that includes equipment service contracts and simply not replacing filters as substitutes
  • Five assumptions to test, such as willingness to pay monthly, each with an interview or pre-order test

This is an illustrative scenario showing how to fill in the prompt and what to look for. It is not a recorded model output. Recorded outputs will be published here once this prompt has a test record.

Testing and editorial review

Status: Untested. Reviewed for structure and clarity by the editorial team. No recorded model test yet.

No test record has been published for this prompt yet. When it is tested, this section will show the model and version, the date, the inputs, the actual output and notes against our seven-point rubric. We do not publish numerical scores.

Editorial record
AuthorTheBestPromptFor Editorial Team — The editorial team writes, reviews and maintains the prompts and guides on TheBestPromptFor. Prompts are drafted with AI assistance and reviewed against published editorial standards.
PublishedNovember 15, 2026
Last reviewedNovember 15, 2026
Last testedNot yet tested
Version history
  • v1.0 — November 15, 2026 · Initial version

Limitations and things to check

  • Without web search the model cannot retrieve current figures, and anything it recalls may be outdated or wrong.
  • Linked sources can be secondary pages that repeat a number without its original context. Trace important figures to the original publisher.
  • Paid analyst reports and private-company data are usually out of reach, so competitor revenue and share will often be missing.
  • Niche and local markets may have little published data, leaving the size estimate dependent on your own inputs.
  • Desk research does not show whether customers will buy. Only primary research and sales attempts do.

Alternative prompts

All Research prompts →

Frequently asked questions

Can I trust a market size figure from an AI model?

Trust the method, then check the inputs. A range built from inputs you can open and verify is useful. A single number with no source is not, however confident it sounds. That is why the prompt bans unlabeled figures and asks for the arithmetic behind every estimate.

Which model should I use for this?

One that searches the web and links its sources, since the brief is only as good as the evidence behind it. A model without search can still help you define the market, structure segments and list assumptions, but its figures should be treated as leads to verify.

How is this different from a competitor analysis?

This prompt looks at the whole market: who buys, how many of them there are and what shapes demand. Competitors are one section. If you already know the market and need a detailed comparison of specific rivals, use the competitor analysis prompt instead.

Sources and references

  1. Prompt engineering guide — OpenAI
  2. Prompt engineering overview — Anthropic

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